Geopolitical Turmoil and Economic Data to Shape Markets in Early 2026

Markets enter 2026 with heightened volatility as U.S. military intervention in Venezuela sparks geopolitical uncertainty. The abrupt extraction of President Maduro and subsequent claims of American control over Venezuelan oil reserves sent shockwaves through commodity markets. Oil prices gapped up Sunday night, with traders pricing in potential supply disruptions from the OPEC member.

Friday's December jobs report looms large, with economists forecasting 55,000 new positions—a slowdown from November's 64,000 gain. Federal Reserve officials remain divided on rate cut timing, scrutinizing labor data for signs of economic softening. The S&P 500's 16% annual gain masks December weakness, leaving equities searching for direction NEAR record highs.

Fourth-quarter earnings season kicks off with major banks reporting the week of January 13. Delayed economic data releases have created an information vacuum that's amplifying market sensitivity to geopolitical developments. Cryptocurrencies may benefit from safe-haven flows as traditional assets face dual pressures from political risk and monetary policy uncertainty.